Thursday, January 05, 2006

Manny staying put (?)

So now it seems that Manny Ramirez isn't going anywhere after all, according to ESPN Deportes. When was the last time anybody quoted ESPN Deportes as a source? Anyway, according to Pedro Gammonzo, Ramirez has accepted that he'll be in Boston and no longer wants a trade. This doesn't qualify as a big surprise, considering the numerous variations of failed trades involving Manny and the obvious obstacles to moving him. So I guess now Omar Minaya will have to stalk Manny the conventional way, by climbing a tree outside his house with a pair of binoculars. Not that I'm sure Minaya hasn't been doing that already.

Is this the end of the Manny saga? I think it is for at least a while. Teams generally don't want to trade sluggers who are basically on auto pilot for 45 homers and 130 ribbies each year. Now that Manny claims he's content to stay in Boston, I see no reason why Jed Hoyer, Ben Cherington, Larry Luchino, Ray Borque, Sam Malone, and whoever the hell else is involved in running that team will expend any more effort negotiating over him right now. It was tough to find a deal for Manny in which the Sox were truly getting better, and with Damon's loss they can even less afford to part with what he brings to the plate.

However, I don't think we'll make it the remaining three years Manny has on his deal without going through another thing like this. He's too fickle, too expensive, getting older, etc., and my guess is around the July '07 deadline we may be in for this again. Maybe it won't be until the winter between '07 and '08, but I think we should all be prepared for round 6 of daily Manny trade rumors at some point once more.

Rob Neyer had an article the other day in which he classified which current major leaguers would be locks for the hall of fame even if they never played again, which ones are close but wouldn't be assured of anything if they really did stop right now, and which ones are on the right path but still have a way to go. Interestingly, he placed Ramirez in the third category. Below are his career stats:

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1993 21 CLE AL 22 53 5 9 1 0 2 5 0 0 2 8 .170 .200 .302 16 0 0 0 0 3
1994 22 CLE AL 91 290 51 78 22 0 17 60 4 2 42 72 .269 .357 .521 151 0 4 4 0 6
1995 23 CLE AL 137 484 85 149 26 1 31 107 6 6 75 112 .308 .402 .558 270 2 5 6 5 13
1996 24 CLE AL 152 550 94 170 45 3 33 112 8 5 85 104 .309 .399 .582 320 0 9 8 3 18
1997 25 CLE AL 150 561 99 184 40 0 26 88 2 3 79 115 .328 .415 .538 302 0 4 5 7 19
1998 26 CLE AL 150 571 108 168 35 2 45 145 5 3 76 121 .294 .377 .599 342 0 10 6 6 18
1999 27 CLE AL 147 522 131 174 34 3 44 165 2 4 96 131 .333 .442 .663 346 0 9 9 13 12
2000 28 CLE AL 118 439 92 154 34 2 38 122 1 1 86 117 .351 .457 .697 306 0 4 9 3 9
2001 29 BOS AL 142 529 93 162 33 2 41 125 0 1 81 147 .306 .405 .609 322 0 2 25 8 9
2002 30 BOS AL 120 436 84 152 31 0 33 107 0 0 73 85 .349 .450 .647 282 0 1 14 8 13
2003 31 BOS AL 154 569 117 185 36 1 37 104 3 1 97 94 .325 .427 .587 334 0 5 28 8 22
2004 32 BOS AL 152 568 108 175 44 0 43 130 2 4 82 124 .308 .397 .613 348 0 7 15 6 17
2005 33 BOS AL 152 554 112 162 30 1 45 144 1 0 80 119 .292 .388 .594 329 0 6 9 10 20
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
13 Seasons 6126 1922 15 1414 30 1349 .314 .409 .599 2 66 138 77 179
1687 1179 411 435 34 954 3668

He's a 9 time All Star, by the way. Now, I wouldn't argue that Ramirez is a lock if he retired tomorrow. 400 homers is totally devalued now, he doesn't even have 2,000 hits, he isn't a great defensive player or a speed demon that can replace a lack of the big counting stats. So no, he's not in yet. But isn't he at least close? For instance, the third group had Pujols, Vlad, Tejada, and Abreu. There should be no question that Manny has already done a lot more for his hall of fame credentials than those guys. The "close" group included Jeter, Sheff, and A-Rod (damn Yankees), among others. Isn't Manny in with them? He should be. He's been one of the most feared hitters in his league for a decade and by my count has already had 7 great seasons and 3 very good ones. At his pace he'll eclipse 500 homers and 1700 RBI after two more seasons, certainly Hall numbers. I understand that he won't get any points for being a team player or super playoff performer (his October numbers are ok, not bad, not great) which might make up for any shortfall in the counting stats. But for me, Ramirez is damn close already, and I'm surprised at Neyer's assessment on this. I'd like to know what you guys think.

6 Comments:

Blogger Adam said...

I agree with you, I think neyer is wrong. Look at his RBI numbers. The guy is a machine!

2:06 AM  
Blogger Avo said...

Neyer is a moron. He probably feels like Manny isnt so strong in some fake stat that he created last week and therefore falls short. Manny Ramirez is probably the best pure hitter of our lifetime. He's already in.

3:35 AM  
Blogger The Fades said...

i think "avo" is going a bit overboard with manny being the "best pure hitter of our lifetime", and I think "avo" said this b/c manny is from the heights and "avo" dwelled there for a bit of time and now he feels an extrememly close connection with manny. That being said, the best pure hitter of our lifetime is none other than hubie brooks.

7:43 AM  
Anonymous Ian said...

Manny should make it to the Hall for listening to his radio while playin

10:32 AM  
Blogger If I Ran The World said...

I think baseball reference.com solves the mystery all by itself.
Payer's with Similar Stats through age 33 includes:
Juan Gonzalez (907)
Ken Griffey (856)
Jim Thome (855)
Albert Belle (851)
Willie Mays (847) *
Jeff Bagwell (845)
Duke Snider (841) *
Frank Robinson (835) *
Frank Thomas (831)
Barry Bonds (825

Is gonz a lock? is The Big Hurt? Is Thome close? Bags?

11:37 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The other thing to consider is age: Vlad, Abreu and Pujols are doing insane things and have a lot longer to go before their careers end. Manny is 33 already: he's got maybe 2 more peak years left before he starts to decline. I also think his defense--which is historically atrocious--is going to made into a big deal.

3:42 PM  

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